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   Technical Articles and Reports Russia Metals Report Q1 2012 DI: 13-07-2012 Yazdır   Tavsiye Et

 



Business Monitor International's Russia Metals Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, metals associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Russia's metals industry. Russia’s metals production was undermined by slow export growth in 2011, although domestic consumption rates strengthened and compensated for the impact of the eurozone crisis and the Chinese economic slowdown. BMI expects the domestic market to continue to lead growth in 2012 with construction and shipbuilding playing a more prominent role in the market as a result of government investments and consistent industrial growth averaging 5.5% over the next five years.


In the first 11 months of 2011, Russian crude steel output rose just 2.7% year-on-year (y-o-y) to 62.9mn tonnes, with BMI estimating full-year output of 68.5mn tonnes, around 1.5mn tonnes less than forecast. Finished steel production grew 2.2% to 59.3mn tonnes, just under the level achieved in 2007 before the global financial crisis. Russia produced 20mn tonnes of long products (a growth of 11.1% y-o-y) and 28mn tonnes of flat products (up 3.3% y-o-y), reflecting the changing dynamics of the domestic steel market with construction activity picking up. The second half of 2011 was not as strong as the first, with the expected momentum for increases in prices and demand undermined by the eurozone crisis and the situation in the Middle East. 


Finished steel consumption should rise by a further 7% to 40.5mn tonnes in 2012 and is forecast to reach new historic highs over the years ahead, hitting 51.5mn tonnes by 2016. Along with solid export performance, after a lull in 2012, consumption should absorb increases in capacity to ensure that crude steel output exceeds 100mn tonnes for the first time in 2016, with hot-rolled output of around 76mn tonnes, supported by average annual industrial growth of 5.5%.  Russian primary aluminium output totalled 3.8mn tonnes in 2011, down 1.8% y-o-y. The weak showing for 2011, combined with more difficult demand conditions and lower prices, led to the idling of around 600,000 tonnes per annum (tpa) of capacity. BMI expects a modest reversal in 2012, with 1.1% growth to 3.84mn tonnes, although there are significant downside risks posed by the global market with 2.8% growth in consumption to 746,000 tonnes insufficient to cover any downturn in exports. Around a fifth of the increase will come from the increase in capacity at RUSAL’s Volkhov smelter from 24,000tpa to 32,000tpa in a programme that was completed in December 2011. Over the medium term, RUSAL’s growth will be boosted by the 600,000tpa smelter at the Boguchanskoye Energy and Metals Complex (BEMO) and the 750,000tpa Taishet Aluminium Smelter, which are due to come onstream in 2013. BMI believes that by 2016, Russian primary aluminium output will top 7.2mn tonnes, creating a surplus of 6.3mn tonnes for export.  BMI estimates that refined nickel output totalled 249,000 tonnes for the year as a whole. This represents around 95% of installed capacity. BMI forecasts growth of 0.9% to 252,000 tonnes in 2012, restrained by the weakness of the global market due to the eurozone crisis and the slowdown in China. Russia’s refined nickel output is being constrained by falling grades and annual mining output growth averaging just 1.9% over the medium term, exceeding 300,000 tonnes by 2016. Additionally, exports have been restricted by nickel export levies. Nevertheless, Russia is expected to remain the world’s largest nickel miner and refiner over the forecast period, even though lower growth rates will shrink its global market share. BMI estimates that refined copper output totalled 915,000 tonnes in 2011 on the back of a 12% rise in consumption to 472,000 tonnes. It projects around 1% growth in output in 2012 amid a continued rally in the Russian market which should see consumption levels grow by over 7% to 505,000 tonnes, although this remains well below pre-2008 levels. By 2016, Russian annual refined copper output should be around 1mn tonnes, up 9.6% over 2011, while consumption will total around 671,000 tonnes, up 42% over the period



 

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